my 2006 predictions

6 01 2006

in learning circuits blog, clark aldrich proposes his top 11 trends in elearning. while i agree with many of his ideas, i do disagree on some.  here’s my top 10 list with biggest impact listed first.

1 web 2.0 gains enthusiastic acceptance in learning rss, web services, blogs, wikis and the other "web 2.0" technologies are going to inspire new models for the delivery of learning to more employees – and they’ll not only get it, but they’ll love it.

2 the googlization of learning continues – "googling" is the spearhead of a paradigm shift in the way we construct knowledge and deliver and find information.  this shift by shear nature will continue to impact learning.

3methodology and design are rediscovered – primarily because of the previous two factors, the ability to simply dump content into a technology platform won’t be so simple anymore.  to determine which of the myriad of options available to use will require a return to sold design and the development of new instructional and learning methodologies.   no longer will it suffice to just let the technology determine what we can do.

4the rampant adoption of podcast and like delivery technologies will finally be the tipping point for audio and video to over take text as primary delivery mode for content.

5  blogs and wikis disappear – the functionality and usage of blogs and wikis will begin to be subsummed into other more primary technologies.   socialtext and project management software incorporating wiki technology are two examples of the forward trend.

6open source tools take over lms market – the movement that has begun in higher education will spill over into the corporate marketplace providing one more front for the corporate lms vendors to shore up.

7simulations will continue to gain exceptance – the barriers to acceptance of simulations, and their generally higher price tag, are falling.  simulations will gather momentum at all levels of corporate training.

8 mobile technologies will continue to change delivery options – as personal data appliances become more dependable and extendable, learning professionals will find ways to fulfill the dream of learning any time, any where.

9workflow learning – new enterprise software will enable learning interventions to be placed into the workflow in ways only imagined til now.

10  talent hired for general aptitudes needs training – the war for talent will soon result in companies having to hire the person who demonstrate general aptitudes and then train them to specific job requirements.


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